Effects of an oil price shock on importing and exporting countries

Effects of an oil price shock on importing and exporting countries From the middle of twentieth century, due to exceptional importance of the crude oil in the supply of the worlds energy demands, it has become one of the major indicators of economic activities of the world. Even after the appearance of alternate forms of energy like solar power, water and wind, the importance of crude oil as the main source of energy still cannot be denied. This sharp increase in the world oil prices and the volatile exchange rates are generally regarded as the factors of discouraging economic growth. Particularly, the very recent highs, recorded in the world oil market bring apprehension about possible slump in the economic growth in both developed and developing countries. A large number of researchers proposed that exchange rate volatility and oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on real economic activities. The impact of oil price fluctuation is expected to be different between in oil exporting and in oil importing countries. An oil price increase should be considered as bad news for oil importing countries and good news for oil exporting countries, while the reverse should be expected when the oil price decreases. Through demand and supply transmission mechanism, oil prices impacts the real economic activity. The supply side effects are associated with the fact that crude oil is a basic input to production, and an increase in oil price leads to a rise in production costs ultimately that result in firms lower output. Oil prices changes also entail demand-side effects on investment and consumption. Consumption is also affected indirectly through its positive relation with disposable income. Moreover, oil prices have an adverse impact on investment by increasing firms costs. On the other hand it is generally recognized that the depreciation of exchange rate would reduce imports and expand exports, while the appreciation of exchange rate would encourage imports and discourage exports. Especially a depreciation of the exchange rate leads to income transfer to exporting countries from importing countries through a shift in the terms of trade. Since 2003, oil prices increased continuously, even touched the peak of $137 per barrel in July 2008, but after that a declining trend was observed. After 1970s, many negative oil shocks hit the world economies. The first one was during 1973-74 caused by OPEC oil prohibition, and secondly in 1978-79 when the OPEC put restraints on its oil production. This rising trend in oil prices continued until mid 1980s, subsequently, Iraq-Iran war in early 1980s further shoot up the prices. However in 1986, when Saudi Arabia increased its crude oil production, oil price tend to decreased. In 1990s, Iraq-Kuwait war was a major factor of oil price increase but it was ended in a year because of Asian financial crisis. In 1999-2000 the OPEC again narrow its production leading to another price shock. The latest and last oil price shock was started in the year 2003 which continued till July 2008. In other words, oil prices have always remained quite volatile. According to report of IEA (2004) , these price shocks have raised serious concerns among the policy makers all over the world. The adverse economic impact of higher oil prices on oil-importing developing countries is generally considered as more worse than for the developed countries because of their more reliance on imported oil and are more energy-intensive. Malik. A (2007) also mentioned in her research that, the recent surge in the oil prices especially after 2000 has worried many economists about its possible adverse impacts. This increasing trend in the oil prices has hurt many of the economies worldwide including that of Pakistan, in terms of creating inflationary pressures, increasing budget deficit and balance of payment problems. According to ADB (2005) report, supply, demand, and speculative factors, and their interrelationships, all leads towards the steady rise in oil prices. From the last many years, all over the world, the demand for oil grew due to economic strength and growth in the US, as well as strong economic performance in developing Asian countries specially China and India. From 1990s to 2003 global demand for oil grew at the rate of 1.3 % whereas for the People Republic of China and India the combined rates is at 7 % and accounted for almost 40 percent of the demand growth. There are various empirical literatures, investigating the relationship between oil price variations and economic growth. The existence of a negative relationship between macro-economic activities and oil prices has become widely accepted especially after Hamiltons 1983 work. He pointed out that increase in oil prices, reduced US output growth from 1948 to 1980. Hamiltons findings have been confirmed and extended by many authors and researcher. Hooker (1996) confirmed and extended Hamiltons work for the period 1948 to 1972 and demonstrated that the oil price level and its changes do reflect the influence on GDP growth. This is shown in the third and fourth quarters after the shock that rise of 10% in oil prices lead to a GDP growth decrease of approximately 0.6 %. Accordingly, Lee et al. (1995) Mork (1989), and Hamilton (1996) presented the non-linear transformations of oil prices to re-establish the negative association between oil prices increases and economic decline, as well as t hese researchers also analyzed Granger causality between both variables. The result of Granger causality test proved that oil prices Granger cause U.S. economy before 1973 but no longer Granger cause was found from 1973 to 1994. Recently, Hamilton (2003) and Jimenez and Rodrà ­guez (2004) also confirms the non-linear relationship between the economic growth of U.S. economy and increases of oil prices The quantitative exercise conducted by the IEA in alliance with the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and development) department of Economics and with the assistance of IMF Research department in 2004, indicated that a continued $10 per barrel increase in oil price would result in the decrease of about 0.4 % OECD as a whole, in the first and second years of higher prices. Inflation would increase by half a percentage and unemployment would also increase in this case. The OECD imported the oil at a cost of over $260 billion in 2003 which is 20% more than its 2001 oil need. European countries, which are highly dependent on oil imports, would suffer most in the short term, their GDP dropping by 0.5% and inflation rising by 0.5% in 2004. The U.S would suffer the least, with GDP falling by 0.3%, because its indigenous production meets a bigger share of its oil needs. Japans GDP would fall 0.4%, This analysis assumes constant exchange rates and economic growth for the US econom y. The present paper is the extension of the existing empirical literature in two directions. First, we have not focused on the oil importing US economy only , rather we analyzed the effects of an oil price shock in two different type of countries which include five oil exporting countries i.e. Saudi Arabia, Norway, Venezuela, Kuwait , Nigeria and five oil importing country i.e. Pakistan, India , China, Japan , Germany. Secondly, we will not only demonstrate the relationship between oil prices and real economic growth but we will also analyze the role of the real exchange rate for real economic growth. Oil Importing Countries China Chinas real GDP has increased continuously at surprising rate of 10% per year in recent years. Simultaneously with strong economic growth, its demand for energy is also surging rapidly. The figure 1 clearly shows about the oil consumption and production behavior of the country which tends the country to import from different countries. China produces 3798 thousand barrels per day and consumes 8200 thousand barrels per day of oil in 2009. This means that China has to import roughly 4402 thousand barrels per day to meet its consumption needs per day. In the year 2007, China was declared as the worlds third largest net importer of oil behind the U.S and Japan. In July 2005, the reform of the exchange rate system was introduced by the central bank of China. After the reforms, the exchange rate of yuan was set according to a basket of other currencies. At the end of 2007, the yuan was appreciated by 7.5% approx. against the dollar, in consequence of these reforms. India According to the Oil Gas Journal (OGJ), India had second-largest amount of proven oil reserves i.e. 5.6 billion barrels in the Asia-Pacific region after China as of January 2009. With the high rates of economic growth and over 15 % of the worlds population, India has become one of the important consumer of energy resources. In 2006, India was the sixth largest oil consumption country of the world. The global financial and credit crises have slowed Indias significant economic growth particularly in its manufacturing sector. Due to this crunch, the GDP growth rates have turn down from 9.3 percent in 2007 to 5.3 % in the last quarter of 2008. Despite of this slow economic growth, Indias energy demand continues to rise. India is developing into an open-market economy now but traces of its past autarkic policies remain. The accelerated country growth was averaged at 7% since 1997 and the main factor behind this was economic liberalization, including reduced controls on foreign trade and investment, began in the early 1990s. An industrial slowdown early in 2008, followed by the global financial crisis, led annual GDP growth to slow to 6.5% in 2009, still the second highest growth in the world among major economies. The government abandoned its deficit target and allowed the deficit to reach 6.8% of GDP in FY10. Nevertheless, as shares of GDP, both government spending and taxation are among the lowest in the world. From the figure 2 it can easily be observed that the production of crude oil is not upto that level to meet consumer demand which tends the country to import from outsiders. From 1996 onward India is producing oil approximately with the same trend but consumption is increasing day by day. India produced 680.4 thousand bbl/d of total oil in 2009, of which approximately 650 thousand bbl/d was crude oil, with the rest of production resulting from other liquids and refinery gain. India has over 3,600 operating oil wells, according to OGJ. Although oil producti on in India has slightly trended upwards in recent years, it has failed to keep pace with demand and is expected by the EIA to decline slightly in 2009. Indias oil consumption has continued to be robust in recent years. In 2007, India consumed approximately 2.8 million bbl/d, making it the fifth largest consumer of oil in the world. In 2006, India was the seventh largest net importer of oil in the world. The EIA expects India to become the fourth largest net importer of oil in the world by 2025, behind the United States, China, and Japan. On the other hand the Govt of India control its exchange rate and after 2002 reforms , it tends to decrease and Indian currency tends to appreciate. Japan In the years following World War II, government-industry cooperation, a strong work ethic, mastery of high technology, and a comparatively small defense allocation (1% of GDP) helped Japan develop a technologically advanced economy. Today, measured on a purchasing power parity basis, Japan is the third-largest economy in the world after the US and China; measured by official exchange rates, however, Japan is the second largest economy in the world behind the US. Japan has virtually no domestic oil or natural gas reserves and is the second-largest net importer of crude oil and largest net importer of liquefied natural gas in the world. Including nuclear power, Japan is still only 16 percent energy self-sufficient. Japan remains one of the major exporters of energy-sector capital equipment and Japanese companies provide engineering, construction, and project management services for energy projects around the world. Japan has a strong energy research and development program that is supp orted by the government. Oil is the most consumed energy resource in Japan, although its share of total energy consumption has declined by about 30 percent since the 1970s. The figure 3 clearly shows about the oil consumption and production behavior of the country which tends the country to depends heavily on imports from different countries. Japan Oil production is very low and in 2009 it produces only 5.3 thousand barrels per day which is very low as compare to its consumption demand i.e. 4362.9 thousands barrel per day in 2009. This means that Japan has to import roughly 4357.02 thousand barrels per day to meet its consumption needs per day. Due to its gap between domestic consumption and production, Japan remains the second-largest net importer of oil after the United States. After 1970s Japan shows the declining trend in its exchange rate with dollar which means that dollar depreciate against Japanese yen. Growth slowed markedly in the 1990s, averaging just 1.7%, largely becaus e of the after effects of inefficient investment and an asset price bubble in the late 1980s that required a protracted period of time for firms to reduce excess debt, capital, and labor. In October 2007 Japans longest post-war period of economic expansion ended after 69 months and Japan entered into recession in 2008, with 2009 marking a return to near 0% interest rates. Germany The German economy the fifth largest economy in the world in PPP terms and Europes largest is a leading exporter of machinery, vehicles, chemicals, and household equipment and benefits from a highly skilled labor force. GDP grew just over 1% in 2008 and contracted roughly 5% in 2009. Germany crept out of recession in the second and third quarters of 2009, thanks largely to rebounding manufacturing orders and exports primarily outside the Euro Zone and relatively steady consumer demand. The German economy probably will recover to about 1.5% growth for the year 2010. Because of Germanys monetary dilemma, and because the German government as well as the nations bankers and industrialists have recognized German limitations and vulnerabilities, the exchange rate of the country remain very stable from the last many years against dollar. However, If we see the Figure 4, we can easily judge the oil consumption and production behavior of the German economy. In the year 2009 the total oil production was 30.8 thousand barrels per day while the consumption was 2,437 Thousand barrel per day. This means that roughly country had to imported 2406.2 thousand barrel per day of oil from other nations. As with the passage of time it reduces its consumption of oil due to environmental reforms but to fill the gap of Oil production and consumption, country have to rely heavily on oil imports. Pakistan Pakistan, an impoverished and underdeveloped country, has suffered from decades of internal political disputes and low levels of foreign investment. Between 2001-07, however, poverty levels decreased by 10%, as Islamabad steadily raised development spending. Between 2004-07, GDP growth in the 5-8% range was spurred by gains in the industrial and service sectors despite severe electricity shortfalls but growth slowed in 2008-09 and unemployment rose. Inflation remains the top concern among the public, jumping from 7.7% in 2007 to 20.3% in 2008, and 14.2% in 2009. In addition, the Pakistani rupee has depreciated since 2007 as a result of political and economic instability. The government agreed to an International Monetary Fund Standby Arrangement in November 2008 in response to a balance of payments crisis, but during 2009 its current account strengthened and foreign exchange reserves stabilized largely because of lower oil prices and record remittances from workers abroad. Figure 5 of oil consumption and production shows that Pakistan is not reach in oil production however, the ratio is quite good than other advanced economies. The consumption of oil in the year 2009 was 373 thousand barrel per day which was less as compare to 2008 i.e.396 thousand barrels per day. Oil Exporting Countries Kuwait Kuwait is one of the worlds top exporters of oil, with about 2.4 million barrels per day exported in 2008. Kuwaits economy is heavily dependent on oil export revenues which account for roughly 90 percent of total export earnings. Kuwait channels around 10 percent of its oil revenues into the Future Generations Fund for the day when oil income runs out. The Kuwaiti constitution forbids foreign ownership of Kuwaits mineral resources. The Kuwaiti Parliament passed the Foreign Direct Investment Act in 2001, aimed at promoting foreign investment in Kuwaits oil and gas sectors, which facilitated some development in those sectors. Kuwait has a geographically small, but wealthy, relatively open economy with self-reported crude oil reserves of about 102 billion barrels about 9% of world reserves. Petroleum accounts for nearly half of GDP, 95% of export revenues, and 95% of government income. Kuwaiti officials have committed to increasing oil production to 4 million barrels per day by 2020. Kuwait survived the economic crisis on the strength of budget surpluses generated by high oil prices, posting its tenth consecutive budget surplus in 2008, before slipping into deficit territory in 2009. Foreign exchange rates of Kuwaiti dinar are quite stable if compared with dollar. Figure 6 above shows the production and consumption capacity of the co untry which clearly depicts the exporting behavior of the country. In the year 2009 the total oil production was 2350 thousand barrels per day where as consumption was only 320 thousand barrels per day which allow the country to export the oil to other nations and increase their income level. From the figure the it can also seen the how Iraq- Kuwait war in 1992 impact the Kuwaiti oil market and its production. Venezuela Venezuela is one of the worlds largest exporters of crude oil and the largest in the Western Hemisphere. In 2008, the country was the eighth-largest net oil exporter in the world. The oil sector is of central importance to the Venezuelan economy. Venezuela remains highly dependent on oil revenues, which account for roughly 90% of export earnings, about 50% of the federal budget revenues, and around 30% of GDP. A nationwide strike between December 2002 and February 2003 had far-reaching economic consequences real GDP declined by around 9% in 2002 and 8% in 2003 but economic output since then has recovered strongly. President Hugo CHAVEZ in 2008-09 continued efforts to increase the governments control of the economy by nationalizing firms in the agribusiness, banking, tourism, oil, cement, and steel sectors. In 2007, he nationalized firms in the petroleum, communications, and electricity sectors. In January, 2010, CHAVEZ announced a dual exchange rate system for the fixed rate boliva r. The system offers a 2.6 bolivar per dollar rate for imports of essentials, including food, medicine, and industrial machinery, and a 4.3 bolivar per dollar rate for imports of other products, including cars and telephones. The nation is also the fifth largest member of the OPEC, in terms of production. As a result of its bountiful natural resources, Venezuelas economy has been one of the most thriving economies in South America. According to Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ), Venezuela had 99.4 billion barrels of proven oil reserves in 2010, the largest amount in South America. Figure 7 shows that Venezuelas production of crude oil has fallen, while domestic consumption has risen, causing a decline in net oil exports. Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia is the birthplace of Islam and home to Islams two holiest shrines in Mecca and Medina. Saudi Arabia has an oil-based economy with strong government controls over major economic activities. It possesses about 20% of the worlds proven petroleum reserves, ranks as the largest exporter of petroleum, and plays a leading role in OPEC. The petroleum sector accounts for roughly 80% of budget revenues, 45% of GDP, and 90% of export earnings. Roughly 5.5 million foreign workers play an important role in the Saudi economy, particularly in the oil and service sectors, while Riyadh is struggling to reduce unemployment among its own nationals. Five years of high oil prices during 2004-08 gave the Kingdom ample financial reserves to manage the impact of the global financial crisis, but tight international credit, falling oil prices, and the global economic slowdown reduced Saudi economic growth in 2009, prompting the postponement of some economic development projects. Saudi Arabia is t he worlds largest producer and exporter of total petroleum liquids, and the worlds second largest crude oil producer behind Russia. Saudi Arabias economy remains heavily dependent on oil and petroleum-related industries, including petrochemicals and petroleum refining. Oil export revenues have accounted for around 90 percent of total Saudi export earnings and state revenues and above 40 percent of the countrys gross domestic product (GDP). Figure 8 shows the Suaid Oil production and consumption behavior. It is the largest consumer of petroleum in the Middle East, particularly in the area of transportation fuels. Domestic consumption growth has been spurred by the economic boom due to historically high oil prices and large fuel subsidies. In 2006, Saudi Arabia was the 15th largest consumer of total primary energy, of which 60 percent was petroleum-based. The remainder was made up of natural gas, the growth of which has been limited by supply constraints. The graph also depicts the sa me behavior of consumption and production Saudi Currency is one of the stable currencies as compared to dollar from the last decade. Norway Norway is the worlds third-largest gas exporter, its position as an oil exporter has slipped to seventh-largest as production has begun to decline. Norway opted to stay out of the EU during a referendum in November 1994; nonetheless, as a member of the European Economic Area, it contributes sizably to the EU budget. In anticipation of eventual declines in oil and gas production, Norway saves almost all state revenue from the petroleum sector in a sovereign wealth fund. After lackluster growth of less than 1.5% in 2002-03, GDP growth picked up to 2.5-6.2% in 2004-07, partly due to higher oil prices. Growth fell to 2.1% in 2008, and the economy contracted by 1% in 2009 as a result of the slowing world economy and the drop in oil prices. According to the Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ), Norway had 6.7 billion barrels of proven oil reserves as of January 1, 2009, the largest oil reserves in Western Europe. Norway produced about 2067 thousand barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2009 and consumed about 220.2 thousand barrel per day (Figure 9).From 2004 onward the trend shows that Oil production is declining day by day but the good sign is that consumption trend is not showing many fluctuations however, there is hope that new developments in the Barents Sea and increasing the production of existing fields will offset some of the recent declines. In 2008, Norway was the sixth-largest net oil exporter in the world, exporting about 2.25 million bbl/d. According to EIA, Norway exported an estimated 2.25 million bbl/d of crude oil and petroleum products in 2008, down from 2.34 million bbl/d in 2007. According to Statistics Norway, the amount of crude oil alone exported in 2008 was 1.83 million bbl/d. The largest single recipient of Norwegia n oil was the United Kingdom, which imported 35 percent of Norways total oil exports. Norway currency was also depreciated in 2007-08 but again appreciated in 2009 as compared to dollar. Nigeria British influence and control over what would become Nigeria and Africas most populous country grew through the 19th century. Following nearly 16 years of military rule, a new constitution was adopted in 1999, and a peaceful transition to civilian government was completed. Oil-rich Nigeria, long hobbled by political instability, corruption, inadequate infrastructure, and poor macroeconomic management, has undertaken several reforms over the past decade. Nigerias former military rulers failed to diversify the economy away from its overdependence on the capital-intensive oil sector, which provides 95% of foreign exchange earnings and about 80% of budgetary revenues. Based largely on increased oil exports and high global crude prices, GDP rose strongly in 2007-09. The Nigerian economy is heavily dependent on the oil sector which, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), accounts for over 95 percent of export earnings and about 65 percent of government revenues. Figure 10 show s the oil production and consumption of the country. The graph shows the decreasing trend in the production si de, hence less oil will be available to export. In 2009, total oil production in Nigeria was slightly over 2.2 million bbl/d, making it the largest oil producer in Africa. Crude oil production averaged 1.8 million bbl/d for the year. According to the Oil and Gas Journal, Nigeria had an estimated 37.2 billion barrels of proven oil reserves as of January 2010.Since December 2005, Nigeria has experienced increased pipeline vandalism, kidnappings and militant takeovers of oil facilities in the Niger Delta. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) is the main group attacking oil infrastructure for political objectives, claiming to seek a redistribution of oil wealth and greater local control of the sector. Additionally, kidnappings of oil workers for ransom are common. Security concerns have led some oil services firms to pull out of the country and oil worker s unions to threaten strikes over security issues. The instability in the Niger Delta has caused significant amounts of shut-in production and several companies to declare force majeure on oil shipments. Nigeria is an important oil supplier to the United States. Close to 40 percent of the countrys oil production is exported to the United States. Currency of Nigeria is also not as much stable and was highly depreciated in 2009 against dollar. Despite the general recognition that oil price and real exchange rate plays an important role in economic growth, a comparative analysis on the impact of oil prices and exchange rate on oil export country and oil import country is still few. In this paper we firstly take the natural log to eradicate the problem of after that we have checked the descriptive statistics of the data. After descriptive analysis we then employed ADF test to check the stationarity of data. After checking stationarity of data we employed AIC test and then Co-integration. Granger Casualty test was employed at the end to investigate whether the oil price and real exchange rate Granger cause to the economic growth in all of our oil importing and exporting countries. Moreover, the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling with co-integration techniques is applied to examine how real GDP in all our sample countries are affected by changes in international oil prices and the real exchange rate of these countries in the long-run. Finally, a vector error correction model (VECM) will be employed to analyze the short-run dynamics of these variables.

Communicative Games In Teaching Speaking Education Essay

English instruction has drawn much public attending as English has become one of the most effectual international linguistic communications. In such inclination of society for developing hearing and talking accomplishments instead than reading and composing accomplishments, surveies on how to better scholars ‘ speech production accomplishments have been carried out, but there are still many facets left undiscovered. In some non-English speech production states like Viet Nam, many high school pupils frequently find it hard to talk English and experience world-weary and nervous in talking lessons. The grounds are because they spend much clip on the topics that they will impact their consequences of university entryway test than the others, because English trials in high schools and in entryway tests are in composing and reading signifiers but non in talking signifier, and because the figure of periods of topics of natural scientific discipline is more than topics of societal scientific discipline or frailty versa. Therefore assorted methods have been used to accomplish the effectivity in learning English speech production, and one of them is utilizing communicative games. It is said that communicative games is one of the most effectual methods to better learning English speech production in high schools due to their positive effects. In add-on, the survey into using communicative games in learning English speech production in high schools is helpful to my procedure of learning pattern in high schools. For the above grounds, the research subject â€Å" Application of communicative games in learning speech production in English 10 † is hoped to lend to the effectivity in learning English speech production.2. Purposes and aimsThe survey is to show the effectivity in application of communicative games in learning speech production in English 10. The research has some undermentioned purposes: – To happen out jobs that pupils encounter in speech production categories. To analyze the effectivity of communicative games in speech production categories. To propose some pedagogical deductions to accomplish the effectivity in learning speech production.3. Scope of the surveyThe research is examined in 10th grade pupils of three categories at Quoc Hoc high school. For the clip bound and the length bound, the survey trades with four units which are unit 12, 13, 14 and 15 in English 10.4. Research inquiries– What are the troubles that pupils encounter in speech production categories? – How effectual are communicative games in speech production categories?5. Methods of the surveyThe survey is a qualitative and quantitative research. The collected informations by making a study on 10th grade pupils of three categories at Quoc Hoc high school will be quantitatively analyzed. A qualitative analysis on informations collected on pupils will be carried out to demo the effectivity of application of communicative games in learning English speech production.6. Design of the surveyThe thesis is organized into five chief parts as follows: Chapter 1: Introduction presents the grounds for taking the subject, the purposes and aims of the survey, the range of the survey and the organisation of the survey. Chapter 2: Literature Review and Theoretical Background includes two parts. The first portion reviews old related surveies. The 2nd 1 is to show an overview of English 10 text edition, state of affairs of learning and larning English speech production in high schools, scholars ‘ communicative competency, communicative activities and communicative games. Chapter 3: Methods and Procedures shows the research design and research methods, the description of the process of informations aggregation and information analysis, the description of participants and instruments in the research. Chapter 4: Findingss and Discussion is to show the findings of the probe and analysis and to discourse the consequences of the study. Chapter 5: Decision and Implications summarizes the survey, shows deductions and restrictions of the survey and suggests for farther research.Table OF CONTENTSChapter 1: Introduction1.1 Rationale 1.2 Purposes and Aims 1.3 Scope of the Study 1.4 Research Questions 1.5 Organization of the StudyChapter 2: Literature Review and Theoretical Background2.1 Previous research plants 2.2 Theoretical Background 2.2.1 Overview of English 10 Textbook 2.2.2 Communicative Language Teaching 2.2.3 Communicative Competence 2.2.4 Communicative Activities 2.2.5 Communicative Games 2.2.5.1 Definition of Communicative Games 2.2.5.2 Functions of Communicative Games in Teaching EnglishChapter 3: Methods and Procedures3.1 Research Design and Methodology 3.. Study ProceduresChapter 4: Findingss and Discussion4.1 Troubles of Students in Speaking Classs 4.2 Effectiveness of Communicative Games in Speaking Classs 4.3 Discussion 4.4 DrumheadChapter 5: Decision and Deductions5.1 Decision 5.2 Deductions 5.2.1 Design Principles of Communicative Games 5.2.2 Principles of Application of Communicative Games in Teaching Talking 5.2.3 Some Suggested Communicative Games in Teaching Talking 5.2.3.1 Some Communicative Games for Unit 12 5.2.3.2 Some Communicative Games for Unit 13 5.2.3.3 Some Communicative Games for Unit 14 5.2.3.4 Some Communicative Games for Unit 15 5.3 Restriction 5.4 Suggestions for Further ResearchEXPECTED OUTCOMESThe consequences of this survey are expected as follows: First, games are activities that make people experience relaxed and aroused and utilizing communicative games in learning English speech production draws attending of non lone instructors but besides scholars. Second, instructors can cognize more about the effectivity of communicative games in learning speech production, and cognize how to take or plan communicative games suited for scholars and learning points. Third, learning English speech production is more exciting and effectual because communicative games motivate scholars and assist them comprehend learning points in a natural manner.Plan OF THE PROJECTOccupation Detailss of occupation Time 1 Choosing a subject and planing the program of the undertaking – Determination job countries that require probe – Choosing a suited subject – Consulting relevant surveies and paperss – Planing the program of the undertaking By 24th December 2 Roll uping informations and analysing the information – Design questionnaires – Making study on 10th grade pupils by utilizing questionnaires – Analyzing the information By the terminal of February 3 Writing the thesis – Writing the first bill of exchange – Completing the thesis and composing the concluding bill of exchange By the terminal of March i? ¶ I thirstily underscore my committedness to carry throughing this research paper as scheduled under the direction of my supervisor. i? ¶ The first bill of exchange needs more work ; nevertheless, I agree to assist the pupil on status that the pupil can transport out the undertakings as planned.SUPERVISOR STUDENTVo Tha »Ã¢â‚¬ ¹ Thanh Dia »Ã¢â‚¬ ¡p Nguya »Ã¢â‚¬ ¦n Thia »Ã¢â‚¬ ¡n Ma »?

What Ethical Issues Does Ethnography Raise How Might We Deal with These?

Ethics can be defined as a â€Å"set of moral principles and beliefs that govern a person’s behaviour or the conducting of an activity† with its main principle of doing ‘good’ and preventing harm (Oxford Dictionaries: 2011). However Orb et al (2002:93) states that Ethical issues can best be described or expressed as the â€Å"tension between the aims of research to make generalizations for the good of others, and the rights of participants to maintain privacy. Ethical issues and moral dilemmas are seen to arise in almost any type of research concerning human participants; in quantitative, biomedical, psychological, anthropological and sociological research. The infringement of some ethical issues which arise are considered to be more serious than others; however in order to minimise these ethical dilemmas, researchers must follow and obey a strict set of ethical guidelines in order to protect and minimise harm caused to participants or research subjects.Ur ie Bronfenbrenner suggests that there is no way of conducting research without breaching the principles of professional ethics, and that the only way of avoiding such dilemmas is to cease the conduct of any research (Fine 1993:267). Clearly there a variety of differing ethical dilemmas which occur in research, however those which arise in ethnographic research are in complete contrast to those ethical dilemmas raised in biomedical or quantitative research, where some might suggest that ethical problems are greater (Alder et al 1986).Punch (1994) goes further in suggesting that qualitative studies such as ethnography rarely, if ever, raise ethical issues (Orb 2000:93); however this statement is heavily debated. This essay aspires to discuss and analyse the ethical issues which arise in ethnography and discuss how valid and harmful these issues really are. The paper will also seek to discuss how researchers may overcome these ethical dilemmas and as to whether they are really effectiv e means to dealing with the issue.However, firstly this essay will commence by giving a brief history of ethics, draw upon problems concerning the ethical review board guidelines and outline two contrasting dimensions of ethics. Today ethics are seen to be used as a tool to guide and direct research studies, however it seems that before the mid 1950’s research studies gave little regard to ethical guidelines or their research subjects causing a great deal of harm and distress to individuals and cultures (Akeroyd 008:133). An extreme example of this happened in America, from 1932 to 1972, many African American people where deliberately left untreated for syphilis as researchers wanted to find out what would happen if the illness was left (Orb 2002:93). Questions are today raised as to whether these studies should be disregarded as so many ethical issues and dilemmas were raised in pioneering research.However, today research studies are under strict regulation and scrutiny from ethical review boards, that have developed guidelines and controls which must be obeyed during any type of research. In the US, the Institutional review board (IRB) review all federally funded projects and require the researchers to follow a strict set of rules whilst conducting their studies, such as informing their participants of the objectives of research, obtaining consent from participants, protecting them from harm and so forth (Murphy and Dingwall 2007:340).However the ethical guidelines set by Institutional Review Boards have been criticized greatly by many social scientists claiming that the codes set have been designed around biological or quantitative models of research which are totally inapplicable nor relevant to social research and in particular ethnographic studies (Akeroyd 2008:147). Social scientists argue that the ethical guidelines set are not sensitive to ethnographic research and due to this may cause harm to individuals or groups studied; further they argue that the guidelines are liable to constrict research unnecessarily (Murphy and Dingwall 2007).In ethnographic research it would seem that ethical dilemmas are strongly correlated to the ontological and epistemological foundations of the research. However there seem to be two differing dimensions in explaining ethical issues, firstly is the concequentialist approaches and secondly there is the deontological approaches and in order to accomplish good quality research both approaches must be regarded. The consequentialist approaches are primarily concerned with the outcomes of the research and as too whether the participant is harmed during the study, and if they were, did the ends justified the means?The deontological approaches are on the other hand concerned with the participant’s rights, such as were they treated with respect, informed consent and did were their rights to privacy and autonomy attained (Murphy and Dingwall 2007:340). Many presume that these approaches are in competition however they are not because in actual fact these two contrasting approaches work in sync in order to protect participants from harm whilst also respecting the rights of participants.Beaucamp et al (1982) were one of the first to consider the consequentialist and deontological approaches and devised a list of ethical principles to be complied with when conducting research (Murphy and Dingwall 2007:340). In their list of principles BeauChamp et al noted Non-maleficience, Beneficence, self-determination and justice. They noted that Non-maleficience, requires the researcher to protect participant from harm and Beneficence suggests that the research must discover and obtain something of significance from the research for it to be ethical; these two approaches fall under the consequentialist approach.The deontological approaches outlined by Beaucamp et al are Self-determination, where the researcher must respect participant’s views and beliefs and Justice where the res earcher is required to treat participants as an equal to themselves. Here firstly the consequentialist approaches to ethics will be discussed. Unlike in biomedical research, if harm occurs within ethnographic fieldwork it is likely to be indirect rather than direct.When biological scientists are testing new drugs or surgery they directly put the research participant under risk of harm and the harm will occur during the procedure; however in ethnography the harm which occurs is not so obvious, visible or direct. It would be foolish to think that ethnographic field work was free from the problem of endangering participants; as it can harm individuals, but just not in the same way as biomedical research. In ethnographic field work if harm has taken place, then the participant will most probably not feel the effects until after the study has ended.In ethnography, if participants are ever harmed, they are usually harmed when the research studies they have participated in have been publis hed or publicized (Murphy and Dingwall 2007:341). The reasons which lie behind this are due to the fact that once the work of an ethnographer has been published they have no control over how individuals read or interpret their work and how other people will use their work in the future (Akeroyd 2008). Through the publication of the researchers work research subjects can be put under a great deal of stress, apprehension and embarrassment and through this their confidence and self-worth can become damaged.Participants may become embarrassed about views they hold if they sense that the researcher disagrees with their outlook or if the researcher makes it apparent that they are surprised that they hold such views. Furthermore this embarrassment and anxiousness caused by research may be likely to increase if the media hype the publication of the study, even in cases where the participant’s identity remains anonymous (Murphy and Dingwall 2007:347). An example of a study where the r esearch subject was embarrassed and harmed through the publication of research is ‘Whyte’s Street corner society study’.Richardson (1992:114) writes about ‘Docs’ reaction after reading what was said about him in the study, he suggests that Doc was embarrassed about what was said about him and his sense of pride and self respect was damaged. After the publication of the study ‘Doc’ pleaded with Whyte never to reveal to anyone who he was and to keep his identity anonymous. Boelen writes how ‘Docs’ sons believed that the Street Corner study ruined their father’s life (Richardson 1992:115).In response to this criticism some social scientists have suggested that ethnographers and their participants should work in partnership when producing reports (Murphy and Dingwall 2007). Others have suggested that too deal with such problem, all studies should present their participants with the right to reply. Some research subjects h ave sent letters to their local papers in response to publications they have taken part in. (Slack 2011) Another way in which ethnography is seen to cause harm is through offering ‘tools’ to those in power.Governments and army’s have been seen to use ethnographers in order to manipulate communities and cultures for both economic and political gains. These bodies of power have used ethnography to control those who are weak and powerless. Burgess (1985) suggests that â€Å"ethnographic studies increase knowledge of the adaptive behaviours that actors use of their feelings† (Murphy and Dingwall 2007:341), and we see examples of this happening today. The American department of defence have invested $40 million into a programme they consider to be a â€Å"Crucial new weapon† in their war against the Taliban in Afghanistan. They have hired ocial scientists and anthropologists so that they can grasp an understanding of tribal relations; and as this is seen to be working they are now looking to expand this ‘human terrain team’ (Rohde 2007). The head of the human terrain team see’s the work conducted as vital and defines it as a â€Å"scholar warrior† and as â€Å"rare work of applied scholarship† (Times Higher education 2010). However although it would seem that many anthropologists are happy for their work to play a vital role in shaping military and foreign policy a great number are in firm opposition and are against the militarization of anthropology.Some believe this program is unethical, dangerous and ineffective. They believe it to be unethical as it breaches many ethical codes of practice such as no informed consent and can cause great harm to the research subjects (Network of concerned anthropologists). As previously noted, ethical guidelines state that research should only be authorized and carried out, and is only deemed as ethical if the study has some significant anticipated benefits. Howe ver in ethnography this is a problem. Predicting and anticipating the outcomes and potential benefits prior to research studies is proven to be extremely difficult.In biomedical studies these are much easier to predict and more obvious. However in favour of ethnographic research the risks are not as likely to be as damaging as those displayed in biomedical research (Arskey 2008). It would seem that many would consider that the emotional harm as a result of ethnographic research is far less damaging that that of physical harm such as the testing of new surgery seen in biomedical research; however ultimately the researcher has less control over the participant (Thorne 1980).Harm could also be said to occur in ethnography due to the difficulty in preserving anonymity, as it is clear that no ethnographer can guarantee this. This is due to the fact there is a possibility that field notes transcripts might be read (Murphy and Dingwall 2007). However a suggestion to counteract this problem would be that once researchers have finished with such documents they should destroy them at the earliest possible point they can so that no prying eyes see the information.Furthermore it would seem that there is only ever a small number of qualitative ethnographic research studies ever carried out, and when research is conducted in an overt manner participants will know that the study has taken place and therefore when the work is published will be able to easily identify themselves or their society in the published work. It could also be argued that the close emotional relationships which are formed during ethnographic studies are harmful to research subjects.Unlike in quantitative and biological research, qualitative ethnographic research offers the opportunity for participants and researchers to form close relationships during the period of the study (Richardson 1992). However, when the study finishes and is completed, usually more often than not, the relationship and friendshi p between the participant and the observer also end. This in turn is harming the participant as they are experiencing a loss. Again an example of this can be drawn from the Street Corner Society study conducted by Whyte. Many wonder how ‘Doc’ must have felt after Whyte left, after spending so much time with him.Did ‘Doc’ feel hurt? Because we know that one of the most important thing in ‘Docs’ life was friendships (Richardson 1992:116). Researchers must be careful of the cathartic effects of ethnographic research as the process of legitimise deviant behaviour can be damaging to society, as people may begin to think it is okay to act in such a way. Fine (1993) states that the research conducted on the extremely racist group of the Ku Klux Klan were guilty in doing this. He suggests that the researcher in this study â€Å"dehumanized their informants placing them outside our moral community in the guise of justice† (Fine 1993:272).The rese archer adopted a sympathetic stance to the views of group, and this is clearly not always a positive characteristic, and can be considered to be unethical. In contrast to biological and statistical research, ethnographic work is based on observations and interpretations of what they see. Clearly the researchers own beliefs and values may influence what they write, and what they chose not to write about in their reports. There is much evidence supporting this notion. Fine (1993:227) suggests that readers who believe what they see in quotations marks are foolish because how do they know that is what actually was said or happened.He suggests that maybe what we sometimes see put in quotation marks are lies and misunderstood interpretations. This can be damaging to research subjects or communities under study as they may be portrayed as people they’re not e. g. racist. A programme on Channel 4 called â€Å"Love thy neighbour† is a prime example. In this reality TV show, the village people partake in choosing who gets to live in their village, and as a black family were voted out, these individuals are now portrayed as being racist.However in response to this criticism it could be said that this type of research is ‘conscious raising’, and may get individuals to think twice about their actions and behaviour (Hammersley and Atkinson 1995). The Deontological approaches and dimensions of looking at ethics usually take in to consideration the participant’s rights to privacy respect and self determination that may be infringed. The discussion about privacy and rights within research has been bought to the fore front after the antagonistic response from some previously studied communities, participants and native anthropologists (Murphy and Dingwall 2007:343).Some make the assertion that the rights of the participants are not always regarded just because they have signed a consent form (Akeroyd 2008). Others go further in saying that cons ent forms don’t really protect participants; they are devised primarily to protect the researcher in an event of law action, and in many cases after signing consent forms participants will still be unaware of what the research is about and what their rights are. It is suggested that these consent forms will just reinforce the unequal relationship between the research and their subjects (Homan 1980).Furthermore Price (1996) believes that â€Å"consent forms risk jeopardizing anonymity making people more identifiable† (Murphy and Dingwall 2008:343). Ultimately consent don’t guarantee the total protection of participants identities (Akeroyd 2008). However Bulmer (1980) is a great believer in informed consent, and believes it to be an essential part of any research. Bulmer (1980) is a critic of covert research and argues that this method of research can cause a great deal of harm to participants whilst also violating their rights and autonomy; he sees this type of r esearch as a betrayal of trust.Edward Shills goes further and suggests that this invasion of privacy is a nuisance as it interferes with individual’s lives and cultures (Homan 1980:52). Furthermore critics argue that those who carry out covert research are reinforcing the idea that all social scientists are devious and untrustworthy. However although ethical review boards guidelines and some critics believe that covert research is unethical and breaching the rights of participants, Homan and other supporters of covert research believe that in some cases this research method is acceptable to use, for example a study on secretive communities.Several researchers have adopted the covert role and Laud Humphreys and his ‘Tea Room’ study is one of the most notable; however this study was subject to much scrutiny once it was published as it was seen to be breaching a tremendous amount of ethical guidelines. Questions are raised as to whether it is ethically right to dece ive participants’ but also is it ethically right that research subjects don’t get to know anything about their researchers background as they know so much about theirs. Researchers rarely disclose personal information and if they do some lie.Diane Wolf (1996) claims that many ethnographers have lied about marital status, national identities or religious beliefs; and she is one of those, as during research she lied about her marital status to her research subjects (Denzin & Lincoln 2003). Moral and ethical questions are raised asking whether it is right and proper for the researchers to have all the power in shaping, designing and undertaking studies; researchers are portrayed to be more competent due to this. It is queried whether this is really appropriate? (Denzin & Lincoln 2003).However feminist argue that to evade such a problem the research subjects should be involved in the planning stages of research and have a say in the types of questions asked. However the pr acticality and sensibility of this idea is questioned, is this really an appropriate way of dealing with the problem? Many argue not. Some suggest that this would be impractical and some participants might not want to contribute. It has further been suggested that this is an obscene idea because at the end of the day it is the researcher who has the final word on what is going to be researched (Murphy and Dingwall 2007).Although it would seem the power status between the researcher and research subjects is less reinforced and not so clear within ethnographic research in comparison to other kinds of research; there are some concerns raised about the way that ethnographers can objectify, manipulate and take advantage of research subjects either during the period of the study or in published work. However some argue that the researcher controls are not in fact a breach of the research subjects’ independence and rights, and is not manipulative in anyway (Hammersley & Atkinson 199 5).On the other hand Fine (1993:284) proposes that it is sometimes the case where female ethnographers are objectified rather than the research subjects, due to the fact we live in a sexist world. Moreover Murphy and Dingwall (2007) argue that in some cases it would seem that the research subjects manipulate and exert power over the researchers conducting ethnographic studies. They propose that this happens through refuting the researcher the privilege of conducting research on themselves or their community or through manipulating what they study and not allowing the researcher to have full responsibility and say over the research.However, although it is questionable whether there is a problem of power imbalance between the research and their research subjects, feminists have suggested ways of dealing with this. They attempt to readdress power imbalances in relationships between the researched and researcher, by not enforcing the power the researcher has and balancing relationship s tatuses, making relationships more intimate and authentic (Murphy and Dingwall 2007).However, other critics have replied to this suggesting that the development of closer, sympathetic relationships are far more unethical and dangerous as manipulation on the researchers behalf becomes far easier as participants are more likely disclose thoughts and feeling to whom they feel close to. Furthermore participants may not wish for a relationship with an individual who is researching them (Akeroyd 2008) Once the researcher has published their research findings they usually gain scholarly recognition and financial benefits, whereas the studied groups or individuals gain nothing on this level.As Richardson (1992: 116) points out Whyte is recognised as the single author to the Street Corner Society and â€Å"received all the fame and fortune†, but questions are raised queering if the publication of the study would have been possible at all without ‘Docs’ help . The fortune made in the Street Corner study could have improved ‘Docs’ life a great deal, and a small percentage of the financial could have changed his life. However once the study ended ‘Docs’ fortune did not change, as he remained jobless for practically the rest of his life and living on the bread line.However it would seem that some researchers believe that through giving participants feedback and insight to the research moral dilemma of their financial and scholarly gains are resolved. On the other hand other ethnographic researchers may not feel that this enough and share the royalties from their published work (Slack 2011). Finally a further ethical dilemma concerning ethnographic research methods is that all the data and publications are based primarily on the interpretations made by the researcher, but it is queried whether the researcher has the right to do so (Hammersley & Atkinson 1995).As Calvino (1998:257) states, communities or subjects can become †˜confrontational’ if they feel that the interpretations made of them are inaccurate and mistaken. Murphy and Dingwall (2007) claim that for research to be ethical they must produce accounts that convey the research subjects standpoints and views. However it is argued that ethnographers can and do sometimes take advantage of their empowered roles and construct their own versions of events and interpret data in ways they wish to display such groups.However in order to overcome this dilemma, it has been recommended that researchers should back their analysis and understanding with proof and verification that what was said and done did really happen (Akeroyd 2008). Therefore in conclusion, it is evident that ethnography can and does raise some ethical dilemmas causing harm and infringes the rights of many participants; however it is the duty and obligation of researchers to minimise these effects, even if they hold negative views and dislike the research subjects.Furthermore it is somewhat clear that ethnography can give valuable insights in to unexplored cultures and individuals, however on the negative side it is also seen as a damaging ‘tool’ used by those in power . It is obvious that today, unlike in the past, practically all research abides by ethical guidelines, set by ethical review boards and if they don’t researchers are held liable. Nevertheless, in the near future it is imperative that ethical guidelines should be amended so that they are specific to the issues surrounding ethnography. It is clear that this is the only way that ethnography will be almost fully ethical.

The Importance Of Body Image - 1486 Words

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